- Investors await US inflation data to shape their expectation of easing cycle pace.
- The consensus sees the easing cycle initiation from June after mixed NFP data on Friday.
- The US won’t release any relevant reports in Monday’s session.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 102.80 with mild gains in Monday’s session. Despite Powell’s dovish tone and mixed employment figures, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future stance on easing interest rates is expected to be influenced largely by US inflation data scheduled for release on Tuesday.
The US labor market saw a mixed performance in February. Despite the Unemployment Rate increasing, earnings figures mildly eased, while the job creation pace accelerated. Easing expectations didn’t see major changes, and the consensus still expects the first cut from the Fed in June.
Daily digest market movers: DXY sees some upside as markets brace for CPI
- The dual effect of Powell’s speech coupled with mixed employment data seems to cap any upward movement of the USD.
- Investors keep their expectations steady for a June interest rate cut by the Fed, predicting a total easing of 100 basis points for this year.
- This week’s data poses a lopsided risk for the Greenback as weakened inflation or Retail Sales data from February will further support the argument for a June rate cut.
- US Treasury bond yields are on the rise, trading at 4.51%, 4.07%, and 4.09% for the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year bonds, respectively.
DXY technical analysis: DXY displays a hint of bullish resurgence, bears still in charge
The indicators on the daily chart reflect a mixed sentiment in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, but the positive slope posits a hint of bullish resurgence, indicating that the selling momentum could be weakening.
While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in an area of flat red bars, this too implies that bears are losing their selling edge, possibly paving the way for a minor bullish correction.
The Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) scenario further emphasizes the bearish trend, with DXY charting beneath the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages. This underpins the dominant bearish market structure, but simultaneous signs of a bullish reversal cannot be utterly discounted.
Still, after losing 1% last week, the short-term outlook for the DXY remains more inclined to the bearish side. However, bears seem to be taking a breather, and if the bullish indications strengthen, buyers might attempt to seize control in the near future.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
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