- The US Dollar whipsaws this week, recovering Monday’s losses.
- Tradesr are mulling US President Trump next steps after he confirmed upcoming tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades higher again and could break back above 109.00.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, got hammered Monday when it turned out tariffs were not part of the executive orders signed by Donald Trump in his first hours as US President. Markets got wrong footed thinking the stance on tariffs got eased and would face broad delay.
However, a surprise comment from US President Trump late Monday night triggered a turnaround with reversals in all major pairs, including the US Dollar. President Trump said the application of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada (CAD) and Mexico (MXN) is due at the start of February, with Canadian Dollar (CAD) and Mexican Peso (MXN) devaluing as an immediate reaction. Overall, reversals are taking place on Tuesday from Monday’s losses on nearly all fronts and asset classes impacted by those comments.
Daily digest market movers: Bracing for more headlines
- The US Treasury will publish some data this Tuesday in an otherwise very empty economic calendar ahead. At 16:30 GMT, 3-month, 6-month and 52-week Bills will be allocated in the markets.
- Equities are tying up with gains on Tuesday. European equities are flat, while US futures are up near 0.50%.
- The CME FedWatch tool projects a 54.2% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at current levels in the May meeting, suggesting a rate cut in June. Expectations are that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain data-dependent with uncertainties that could influence inflation during US President Donald Trump’s term.
- The US 10-year yield is trading around 4.56% and has a long road to recover if it wants to head back to last week’s levels near 4.75%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Pot holes ahead
The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell in the hands of the bears on Monday, with the bulls taking over again on Tuesday. However, traders need to be aware of some potholes in the road ahead should the DXY head back to 109.00 and higher. With the ongoing recovery on Tuesday, some pivotal upside levels could cause a heavy rejection, resulting in a dead-cat-bounce, trapping US Dollar bulls and squeezing them out towards 107.00 and lower.
If this recovery wants to continue its ascent, the pivotal level to gain control of is 109.29 (July 14, 2022, high and rising trendline). Further up, the next big upside level to hit before advancing further remains at 110.79 (September 7, 2022, high). Once beyond there, it is quite a stretch to 113.91, a double top from October 2022.
On the downside, the first area to watch is 107.85-107.90, which held Monday’s correction. Further down, the convergence of the high of October 3, 2023, and the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 107.35 should act as a double safety feature to catch any falling knive.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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