- The DXY Index is significantly lower, near 103.65, on Tuesday.
- The ISM Services PMI from February reflected lower-than-expected figures.
- The focus now turns to labor market data.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 103.65, losing some ground. The causes for these latest movements are primarily focused on February’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report on the Services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which came in lower than expected. If markets start to fear an economic slowdown, they may start to bet on a less aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed).
Despite some evidence of softness in the US economy, it is showing resilience overall. This is making investors confident that the Fed will start easing in June, which may provide a cushion to the US Dollar’s losses. The labor market data set to be released this week will be key to shaping those expectations.
Daily digest market movers: DXY loses some ground on weak data, hawkish bets on the Fed cooldown
- The ISM Services PMI for February, reported by the Institute for Supply Management, is 52.6, which fell short of the expected 53 but is fairly steady compared to January’s 53.4
- An 80% probability of an interest rate reduction in June is being anticipated by the markets, which means a decrease from 100% at the end of the previous week.
- US Treasury bond yields are on the decline with 2-year yields trading at 4.56%, while the 5-year yields, and 10-year yields at 4.15%.
- Labor data reports to be released this week include February’s Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate, all of which are closely followed by the Fed.
- The outcome of labor market metrics will shape the dynamics of the Greenback for the near term.
DXY technical analysis: DXY bears gain ground, conquer 200-day SMA
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) presently occupying negative territory with a negative slope supports the idea of bears’ wielding strength. This suggests that bears maintain a strong hand at this juncture. Likewise, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) registers rising red bars, bolstering the narrative that selling momentum currently prevails.
Assessing the position of the index concerning its Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), it is now trading below the 20, 100 and 200-day SMAs, which suggests that unless the buyers make a move, the outlook has turned negative.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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