The stock market’s performance under Biden remains worse than under Obama or Trump — even with recent gains
The U.S. stock market’s surge to record levels in recent days has prompted President Joe Biden to jab at former President Donald Trump for once predicting the Biden administration would be a catastrophe for equities.
In a social-media post on Friday, Biden wrote, “Good one, Donald,” in reference to Trump having said during the 2020 White House race: “If Biden wins, you’re gonna have a stock-market collapse the likes of which you’ve never had.”
But while there’s no collapse at the moment, how is the stock market’s overall performance under Biden?
As of Friday’s close, U.S. stocks — as tracked by the S&P 500 index
SPX
— have gained 22.5% since his inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021. It’s a sizable rise over about two years and 11 months, especially as the gauge lost ground in 2022, tumbling 19.4% during that year, when it was hurt by the Federal Reserve’s push to raise interest rates in order to fight inflation.
An advance of 22.5%, however, isn’t as good as what most other recent presidents have enjoyed at this point in their terms, meaning just shy of the three-year mark. That’s shown in the below table, which is based on Dow Jones Market Data.
The research team at Wilshire Indexes flagged in August that U.S. stocks so far haven’t fared as well under Biden as they did in Trump’s single term or in either of Barack Obama’s two terms.
“With the 2024 election in sight, the disparity in cumulative equity return generated so far under the Biden administration compared to the superior return trajectory delivered by the Trump and Obama presidencies could cause some concern,” Philip Lawlor, managing director of market research at Wilshire Indexes, wrote at that time. “Electoral cycle logic points to the Biden administration doing its utmost to ensure that the gap closes next year.”
Biden’s market track record could look better against Trump’s in a few months as 2020, the last full year of the Republican’s single term, gets included in any comparisons. Stocks fell sharply in early 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
While in office, Trump often pointed out record highs for stocks, but in a campaign speech on Sunday the 2024 GOP frontrunner said the stock market is “making rich people richer.”
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