Rabah Arezki is a former vice president at the African Development Bank and a former chief economist of the World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa region. He is now a director of research at the French National Center for Scientific Research, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Studies and Research on International Development and at Harvard Kennedy School.
The 2023 United Nations’ Climate Change Conference is convening in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this week. COP28, as it is called, will put the issue of climate change at the center stage of the global debate. Yet the war in Gaza and its consequences are stark reminders that the most urgent challenge facing humanity is the preservation of global peace and security. A pecking order for the 21st century should thus bring back peace building as well as poverty reduction at the top of the policy agenda. Climate action cannot be at the expense of letting wars and poverty fester.
COP28 will take place in a region confronted by the risk of escalating war. Fighting beyond Israel and Gaza could engulf the whole region, including Iran, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and beyond. The new cycle of violence between Israel and Palestine is sowing radicalization on both sides for generations to come. The brief pause in fighting agreed as part of a deal to release hostages is unlikely to last long. The leaders of major Western economies portray themselves as guardians of human rights and international agreements but have been reluctant to call for a full cease-fire. Their indifference has been seen as a new low in the shredding of the rules-based order. Even though a resolution calling urgently for a humanitarian pause was adopted recently by the United Nations’ Security Council, the world remains on the brink of great disorder.
We are entering a new area of geopolitics. The strategic rivalry between the two superpowers, the U.S. and China, has polarized the world. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has furthered the fragmentation of the world between the global north and global south. Now, the war in Gaza reinstituted the Palestinian issue as a major rift in that growing opposition between global north and global south. Beyond the risk of regionalization of the war in Gaza, the inconsistent application of rules undermines any future collective efforts to try and find peace around the world.
Climate negotiations are also likely to become casualties of that unraveling of the rules-based order. It is thus even more important to avoid the crowding out of the peace-building agenda. Critics would argue that the international community could, and should, walk and chew gum at the same time. The absence of clear prioritization is, however, paving the way for a form of “virtue signaling” on climate. It could help whitewash the indecision in stopping the recrudescence of conflicts and endemic poverty that are shattering our humanity. The forgotten conflict in Sudan is a case point. Sudan should mobilize the international community as a matter of urgency. The consequences in terms of death toll, displacement of population and poverty are atrocious. The conflict also has the potential to breed more conflict in Africa. A postmodern world where preventing wars and poverty reduction take a backseat will inexorably lead to the worsening of the climate crisis.
Looked at from the other side, mitigating climate change can help reduce conflict and limit poverty over the medium run. Developing countries urgently need support for adaptation to climate change. Yet again, adaptation has become the orphan of the fight against climate change, because governments in developing countries lack the financial resources. Without financial backstop from governments or multilateral institutions, the private sector will not invest, especially in projects linked to adaptation.
The international community is not stepping up to the plate to support developing countries. Several traditional donors are contemplating or already have reduced their foreign aid on account of mounting economic difficulties and taxpayer pressure at home. Last year, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned of mounting risks to the global economy. They came with disproportionate consequences for developing countries and in turn the risk of further fracturing of the cohesion of the global community. While the global economy is still surprisingly resilient, we have now independently reached a point of active fracturing of global cohesion. The latter may feed viciously into the former and derail the global economy given the heightened risk of generalization of conflicts around the world.
Restoring global cohesion can help solve important challenges such as climate change. But to get there, the international community needs to re-prioritize conflict resolution and poverty reduction. International financial institutions should speak clearly about the importance of peace and conflict resolution and not posit a post-modernist world where climate is the only priority. This climate summit should be an opportunity for world leaders to come together and build the foundations for sustainable climate actions based on peace building and poverty reduction.
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