Borrell's final warning: EU has reached 'breaking point' in Ukraine

As his five-year mandate as the European Union’s foreign policy chief comes to an end, Josep Borrell issues a final warning about the danger that Russia’s expansionism poses for the entire bloc and calls, one last time, on member states to ramp up their military assistance and prevent Ukraine from succumbing to Vladimir Putin’s control.

“We’ve reached the breaking point. Now it’s the moment when member states have to decide: we go and we support,” Borrell said in an interview with a group of media, including Euronews, two days before the end of his tenure.

“The Russians are pushing a lot. The Russians are not waiting for negotiations. Russia continues pushing slowly but continuously,” he went on. “The situation on the frontline is not good (but) the Ukrainians resist.”

Borrell’s comments come at a critical time in the war, with Russian troops making substantial territorial gains in the East and escalating their large-scale attacks against Ukraine’s energy system and civilian infrastructure. At the same time, an estimated 11,000 North Korean soldiers have joined the battle in the Kursk region, which Kyiv partially occupies and hopes to use as leverage in future talks.

“The Russian superiority continues. They have been provided by North Korea much more than we have been able to provide to the Ukrainians,” Borrell said as he directly challenged the belief that Moscow has become a pariah on the global stage.

“I have to recognise: is Russia politically isolated? Certainly not. How many people went to Kazan?” he asked, referring to the BRICS summit in October that saw Putin host the likes of China’s Xi Jinping, India’s Narendra Modi, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphose and, controversially, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, among other guests.

“I can’t frankly say that Russia is becoming isolated in the international community.”

The High Representative, one of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters in the bloc, spent a great deal of his time in office haggling with governments over sanctions to weaken the Kremlin’s war machine and military supplies to strengthen Ukraine’s army.

While his efforts ensured a continued flow of assistance, the overall picture has fallen short of expectations: the EU achieved this month its much-touted target of providing Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition – originally pencilled for the end of March. Meanwhile, a €6.6 billion fund in collective assistance is still under Hungary’s firm veto.

“This pace is completely insufficient,” Borrell lamented. “We have to speed up and do more and quicker. Do more and quicker. We’ve got 1 million rounds. Okay, that’s good. But Russia is shooting 800,000 rounds of ammunition per month. Figures matter.”

‘No sense of urgency’

Having a brutal war raging at its doorstep has forced the EU to reinvent its defence policy, long ignored under the mirage of peaceful times. Defence spending has drastically increased until reaching €326 billion in 2024, an unprecedented 1.9% of the bloc’s GDP, according to the latest report of the Europea Defence Agency.

But there is a growing awareness that much more needs to be done to prepare for the post-war reality of an emboldened Russia. One of the ideas that has gained traction, and which was recently endorsed by Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland, is the issuance of joint debt, or Eurobonds, to boost the bloc’s defence industry.

Although not opposed in principle, Borrell believes this project is not adequate to respond to the invasion because it would only yield results sometime in the future.

“There is something that in Europe we miss very often, which is a time dimension of things,” Borrell said. “If you have to wait to issue debt to collect the money and develop the industrial capacity to produce, (then) it’s too late, my friend. It’s too late. If you have to substitute the military capability of the US, it’s not by issuing bonds, collecting the money, investing and producing. That’s for the next war. For this war, you have to mobilise what you have. Because time matters.”

When EU leaders decided in 2020 to establish a €750-billion recovery fund backed by joint debt, it took Brussels several months to obtain legal consent from the 27 capitals and have the plan up and running. By the time payments began, most countries were already out of COVID lockdowns and enjoying a healthy economic recovery.

“If Russia breaks the front in the next spring, they will not wait for you to issue bonds,” Borrell said. “By the way, how long does it take to issue bonds? I don’t know, but past experience shows that it’s quite slow.”

The war in Ukraine is a “race against time,” he underlined, meaning the financial thinking that was applied to the pandemic cannot be copy-pasted as a solution now.

“Use what you have today, use the tools and the instruments that have been invented in the past to be used in the present,” Borrell said.

We spend too much time designing the strategies for the day after tomorrow when the problem is for today and (it’s) immediate. We don’t have a sense of urgency.”

‘Don’t pretend it’s for free’

An external factor that might help the EU gain the sense of urgency that Borrell regrets is lacking is the upcoming return of Donald Trump to the White House.

The Republican has promised to heavily revise aid to Ukraine and strike a deal to end the war “in 24 hours,” without providing specific details. Should America, a world-class producer of high-tech weapons, withdraw from the West’s common front, Europe will be essentially left alone in supporting the war-torn nation.

“Are we able to supply arms to Ukraine in order to substitute the US engagement? No. Can you realistically say yes?” Borrell said during the interview.

“In three months or two months, things may change a lot in the front line and they (Ukrainians) are not sitting and waiting for Trump to come and decide something.”

To avoid a last-minute scramble to fill America’s vacuum, Borrell urges member states to replenish their military stock, donate as much as possible now and lift all restrictions on the use of weapons so that Ukraine could strike targets deep into Russian territory. US President Joe Biden has already dropped his veto but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains categorically opposed to delivering long-range Taurus missiles.

“Now we have to restock because these stocks ended. No more stocks. So that’s the question. We survived and Ukraine survived thanks to the fact that the former Soviet Union countries have stocks of arms that the Ukrainians knew how to work,” Borrell said, referring to the first months of the war.

“Until the last minute of my mandate, I’m going to continue recommending member states what I have been saying for months: do more and quicker,” he added.

“If there’s a cut on the supply lines, these people cannot fight. And this is my concern. This has to arrive every day. If there are stockpiles, they have to be sent by train, by plane. They have to arrive. They have to be paid.”

The chief diplomat, however, admitted backing Kyiv requires not just the endorsement of presidents and prime ministers but also the buy-in of ordinary citizens, who might be wondering why their taxes should be spent in a distant nation. Communication, he said, is fundamental to helping people understand the threat that Europe also faces.

“In order to continue supporting Ukraine as much as needed, which is much more than until now, members have to win the battle of internal politics because we live in democratic countries. And the governments need the support of the population in order to continue spending money for Ukraine,” he said.

“We have to have the support of the people, and we have to tell them the truth: it’s not for free. Our war cost money and cost lives. And thankfully, it’s not our lives, but it’s our money. Don’t pretend this to be for free,” he went on.

“Someone has to explain to the public opinion in the public debate what is at stake. And I think we are not doing enough. And we try to hide the cost. Don’t hide the cost. Be honest with the people. This has a cost.”