Mexico’s most wanted cartel boss was killed Sunday in a Mexican military operation reportedly supported by U.S. intelligence; however, the emergence of potential successors indicates the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is not at the end of its road, only suggesting the decapitation strike is more likely to drive short-term fragmentation and retaliatory or spillover risks.
Local outlet Político MX reports that following the Sunday killing of CJNG leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes in the military operation, potential successors have already emerged. This signals heightened leadership transition risk and near-term volatility for CJNG command and control.
“The death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes doesn’t just close a chapter: it opens the dispute for control of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel,” Político MX wrote on X.
Here’s the short list according to the outlet:
Among financial operators, regional bosses, and key pieces in the criminal logistics, these are the names appearing in the line of succession:
El 03′ — Financial and logistics operator
‘El Sapo’ — In charge of recruitment and armed structure
‘El Jardinero’ — Responsible for operations in several states
‘RR’ — Key piece in the operational and tactical structure
‘El Tío Lako’ — Operator with strong territorial control in the Guadalajara area
🚨👑 Tras la caída del ‘Mencho’… ellos suenan como sus posibles sucesores para tomar el poder del CJNG
La muerte de Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes no solo cierra un capítulo: abre la disputa por el control del Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación.
Entre operadores financieros, jefes… pic.twitter.com/ukp3e1wSIL
— Político MX (@politicomx) February 24, 2026
Separate from Político MX, X user All Source News claims, “Per an anonymous CJNG source, Juan Carlos Valencia González, alias O3, has been named the new leader of CJNG.”
Per an anonymous CJNG source, Juan Carlos Valencia González, alias O3, has been named the new leader of CJNG.
— All Source News (@All_Source_News) February 24, 2026
On Monday, we cited a conversation between Mexican journalist Luis Cárdenas and security analyst Oscar Balmen, in which they discussed how CJNG “is designed to survive without El Mencho.”
Here are the key takeaways from that discussion:
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The fall of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes does not mean the end of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel: it is a transnational criminal structure with a franchise model and regional autonomy.
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The more than 250 blockades after the operation were not aimed at rescuing him, but were a “criminal résumé”: plaza bosses flexing muscle to dispute the leadership.
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The risk is not immediate, warns Balmen: the rearrangement can take weeks or months to explode, as happened after the capture of Ismael Zambada García; an internal struggle is coming that could fragment or pulverize the cartel.
“The government of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum knew that the ‘elimination’ of El Mencho would trigger a massive terrorist reaction,” research analyst Miguel Alfonso Meza of Defensorxs wrote on X.
Mexico’s Cartel Map
In a viral post, X user Anonymous Hispano cited a 4chan post from “LONG LIVE EL MENCHO” warning of a “Mexican Civil War,” claiming the cartel is enraged and has entered “insurgency mode,” starting with a takeover of Jalisco and preparing “inevitable” actions on US soil.
🔴 Un usuario que se hace llamar LONG LIVE EL MENCHO colocó en [Rule 1] un escalofriante aviso en el que afirma que, aunque El Mencho ya no era dirigente activo del CJNG por su avanzada edad, el cártel está muy enojado y ha entrado en “modo insurgencia”, comenzando por adueñarse… pic.twitter.com/GHTTRYCJy8
— Anonymous Hispano (@anonopshispano) February 23, 2026
Polymarket…
BREAKING: The odds of a ground operation in Mexico are soaring.
19% chance it happens by next month. pic.twitter.com/GcfiTHOakl
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) February 23, 2026
Related:
Our assessment is that spillover risk into the U.S. is rising materially, with retaliatory threats increasing as CJNG recalibrates after the decapitation strike.
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