Europe crosses its fingers for Harris as it fears a Trump comeback

Many in Europe are holding their breath as they watch US voters head to the polls to elect their next president.

For decades, the quadrennial ritual on the other side of the Atlantic has been followed with interest, excitement, and even a certain degree of respect. The United States is, after all, the oldest democracy in the world and Europe’s main security guarantor, granting the tenant of the White House influence over the Old Continent’s political future.

But this curiosity has morphed into concern and in some cases, outright dread.

Europe is staring down a fierce fight between Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate who has vowed to champion the time-honoured transatlantic Alliance and “stand up to dictators,” and Donald Trump, the Republican candidate who has described Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman” and bragged he would “encourage” Russia to do “whatever they want” with countries that fail to meet NATO’s spending target.

For most Europeans, the binary choice is a no-brainer.

A recent YouGov survey across seven European countries showed an overwhelming preference for Harris, including among supporters of Marine Le Pen, France’s far-right leader. By contrast, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is keeping “several bottles of champagne” to celebrate a Trump victory.

In Brussels, the feeling was, until recently, cautious optimism.

Harris, riding the momentum fuelled by Joe Biden’s shocking withdrawal, had quickly secured a modest yet solid advantage in most battleground states.

Harris and her surrogates were relishing the wave: they leveraged pop-culture memes, filled stadiums with celebrities and adopted a tongue-in-cheek approach to dismiss Republicans as “weird.” Her performance in the September debate was widely praised, making her the bookies’ favourite to become the 47th president of the United States.

Then things changed, the fervour evaporated, and the tone darkened. Instead of “weird,” Harris switched to calling Trump a “fascist.”

Now, as Election Day dawns, America finds itself with an impossibly deadlocked battle, much to Europe’s dismay.

Deadlocked battle

Harris and Trump are effectively tied in the seven swing states. The percentage difference between the candidates in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all fall within the margin of error. Pollsters say they have never seen anything like it in recent memory.

Harris’ safest path to the White House has always been the so-called “Blue Wall” made up of Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). Altogether, the three states can take the Democrat to 270 votes, the bare minimum to win nationwide.

But her modest lead in the “Blue Wall,” which was consistent since she jumped into the race, has simply disappeared, giving Trump a realistic chance of swiping the northern region as he unexpectedly did in 2016.

Then, over the weekend, a bombshell: a highly regarded poll put Harris three points ahead in Iowa, a state that has not voted Democrat since Obama ran in 2012. A day later, the final poll by the New York Times showed Harris leading in North Carolina by two points and in Georgia by just one, with Trump comfortably winning Arizona.

“Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire,” the newspaper titled, warning that “neither candidate has a definitive lead” in the battleground states.

In other words, anything can happen, with the sheer unpredictability of it contributing to concerns.

‘The luxury of comfort’

The prospect of having Trump, a man with a well-documented distaste for the multilateral system, back in the White House is the stuff of nightmares for officials and diplomats in Brussels, who fear the mercurial billionaire will turn a blind eye to Vladimir Putin’s expansionism, slap indiscriminate tariffs on every possible import, and abandon (again) the Paris Agreement, killing it off. And that’s just for starters.

But there’s something more profound feeding the anxiety.

In the wake of the first Trump presidency, the EU began talking about “strategic autonomy,” a theoretical approach to ensure the bloc would be shielded against the whimsical ups and downs of Washington DC.

The idea, fervently promoted by French President Emmanuel Macron, gradually gained followers, became mainstream, and inspired new policies to, for example, foster homegrown green tech, attract investment in semiconductors, and crack down on China’s distorting practices.

Overall, though, the balance has been underwhelming. The EU remains intrinsically dependent on global dynamics, be it for trade, energy, technology, climate action, or security.

For all the talk about an emerging “multipolar world,” the US still plays an inordinate role in these dynamics and can single-handedly determine how the pendulum swings, bringing wealth into some corners and wreaking havoc in others.

In no other field is this dependency so palpable than in the Western efforts to support Ukraine against Russia. Since the start of the invasion, America has acted as Kyiv’s prime supplier of advanced weapons, such as long-range ATACMS missiles, which the country can provide thanks to its unrivalled defence sector.

The mere thought of Washington pulling out of the united front and leaving the bloc in a scramble to fill the enormous gap is enough to send shivers down Brussels’ spine.

“The simple truth is: We do not have the luxury of comfort. We do not have the control over elections or decisions in other parts of the world,” Ursula von der Leyen said earlier this year as a $60 billion (€55.4 billion) package of aid was firmly stuck in the US Congress.

Von der Leyen, a vocal advocate of strong EU-US ties, has presented ambitious goals for her second term, which could be heavily upended by a disruptive Trump presidency.

‘Ready for whatever result’

The stakes are so high that the European Commission has set up a special task force to prepare for potential scenarios after 5 November.

“Our role is to be ready for whatever result there is to the elections in the United States,” a Commission spokesperson said on Monday.

Although a Harris win would make European capitals (except Budapest) breathe a loud sigh of relief, the Democrat has not shown a particularly keen interest in the continent beyond her broad objective to keep democratic allies together in the face of authoritarian regimes.

Over the past years, American politics have turned increasingly inward-looking and self-centred: foreign policy scarcely registers in the discourse and, when it does, it is predominantly about Russia, China or the Middle East.

Even if Joe Biden’s agenda has plenty of critics at home, his diplomatic engagement has received plaudits abroad. Biden, who has taken pride in rallying the West against the Kremlin, has that sort of old-school, unwavering belief in the transatlantic alliance that the next generation of leaders, like Harris and Obama, did not grow up with.

The shift in Washington’s focus has prompted an uncomfortable question: Does anyone care about Europe? For many, the answer is only Europe, if anybody, does.

“Harris or Trump? Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us. On condition Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength,” Poland’s Donald Tusk wrote in his social media.

“Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”

An early version of this article was published in The Briefing, Euronews’ weekly political newsletter. Click here to subscribe.