‘Existential threat’: Moscow’s shadow looms over EU's enlargement push

An annual assessment of candidate countries’ progress towards becoming EU members, unveiled by Brussels on Wednesday, showed none of the hopefuls making big strides despite a renewed sense of urgency to expand the European bloc eastwards.

Ten states are waiting in the wings to join the European Union, nine of which have been recognised as official candidates.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has injected new impetus into the process of integrating them into the European bloc to avoid the so-called ‘grey zone’ on its eastern flank.

“The tense geopolitical context makes it more compelling than ever that we complete the reunification of our continent, under the same values of democracy and the rule of law,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement Wednesday.

But recent elections in two of those countries – Georgia and Moldova – have exposed a tug-of-war between Moscow and Brussels in bringing candidate states into their spheres of influence.

A parliamentary vote in Georgia over the weekend saw the ruling Georgian Dream party, considered by many to be close to the Kremlin, tighten its grip on power. The EU has called for a swift probe into widespread reports of electoral irregularities.

Tbilisi’s bid to join the EU has already been frozen due to what the bloc considers to be democratic sliding by the Georgian Dream-led government, which recently adopted two controversial bills considered to be inspired by Moscow’s repressive legislation and running counter to EU values.

The bloc has called on the government in Tbilisi to repeal the bills to put its EU accession bid back on track.

On Wednesday. the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell offered a “path to re-engagement on the way to the European Union,” but only if Georgia’s leadership shows “clear political will.”

He sternly warned that “you simply cannot maintain ties with Russia or to try to do business as usual and expect that your country will be part of the European Union,” in a clear nod to the government in Tbilisi.

For Tinatin Akhvlediani, research fellow at think tank CEPS, the “double messaging” of Georgian prime minister Irakli Kobakhidze, who claims he is committed to EU membership despite being seen by many as gravitating towards Moscow, will inevitably damage Georgia’s EU ambitions.

“Georgia’s European integration is frozen and it’s not going to be progressing as long as the current ruling party does not change its tactics and withdraw all the anti-democratic legislation, and give also people back to their fair elections,” she told Euronews.

Polls estimate around 80% of Georgians support EU membership.

Fighting Russia’s hybrid war

Earlier this month,** Moldova voted to enshrine the goal of EU membership in its constitution, but only by a razor-thin margin of 50.38%. 

Chișinău estimates Russia spent as much as €100 million in total to undermine the electoral process, including through coordinated disinformation campaigns designed to sway or suppress the vote.

Moldova has continued to “cope with the unprecedented challenges resulting from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and intensified hybrid actions from Russia and its proxies seeking to destabilise the country,” the Commission’s report notes.

But it also warns the government in Chișinău against heavy-handed measures to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare.

“The (Moldovan) authorities have struggled to strike a balanced approach between measures to counter malign interference and the respect of rule of law and fundamental rights, in line with international standards,” Brussels says.

A presidential runoff will take place on Sunday, with pro-EU President Maia Sandu facing Aleksandr Stoianoglo of the traditionally pro-Russian Socialist Party.

A victory for Sandu is considered pivotal to keeping the country firmly on its path to EU membership, in a path where the population seems more polarised than in Georgia, with polls putting Moldovans’ support for EU membership at around 60%.

“It’s a frontline country,” Amanda Paul, head of the Europe in the World Programme at the European Policy Centre, told Euronews. “They’ve been the recipient of Russian malign action for many, many years.”

“There should certainly be a foot put on the accelerator to move ahead with the fundamentals and opening these chapters and starting getting the work done,” she added, referring to the next steps in Moldova’s accession bid.

Serbia’s Russian flirtation

In the Western Balkans, Russia’s influence is also hindering candidates’ bids.

Serbia, whose president Aleksandar Vučić has consistently refused to impose any sanctions on Russia and wants to keep relations with the Kremlin warm, was cautioned again on Wednesday for its refusal to align with the EU’s foreign policies, one of the pre-requisites for EU membership.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week cancelled talks with Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević after he met with a Russian minister.

“(Serbia) has maintained high-level relations with the Russian Federation and intensified its relations with China, raising questions about Serbia’s strategic direction,” Brussels’ assessment reads.

Vučić recently signed a free trade deal with Beijing, cancelling tariffs on almost 95% of the country’s exports to China within the next five to ten years.

But Serbia’s ambivalent stance on Russia and Russia is somewhat mirrored by that of Hungary, an EU member state, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintaining ties with Putin and diverging from the EU’s foreign policy line.

Pressed on Wednesday on whether Orbán had stonewalled the EU’s response to reports of irregularities in Georgia by visiting the Georgian premier despite allegations of vote rigging, Borrell said: “The observers have not declared the elections to be free and fair.”

“They haven’t said to the contrary, but they haven’t said they are free and fair,” he added. “Make your own judgement – mine is certainly different from (that of) the prime minister of Hungary.”