Trump Reminds Iran “48 Hours Before All Hell Will Reign Down” As Search For Missing US Pilot Continues

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Summary

  • President Trump reminds Iran of deal timeline, threatens “all hell will reign down” if time runs out.

  • Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran, targeting Iranian air-defense and ballistic-missile sites, while a projectile also hit the perimeter of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant

  • The U.S. military continued search operations for an American airman who ejected after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran

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President Trump Reminds Iran of Timeline, Threatens “All Hell Will Reign Down”

As the long weekend continues, President Trump has issued a statement on his social media feed, reminding Iranian negotiators of his timeline for a deal:

Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT.

And then the threat:

Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them.

Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP

The odds of ‘boots on the ground’ have soared to 83% by the end of the month:

It seems the stock market’s hope (diverging from oil’s surge) was misplaced…for now.

Search Operations Continue for Missing Airmen Continues

With U.S. and Israeli air-delivered munitions still striking targets across Iran, and Tehran retaliating by hitting high-value sites around the Gulf area, while continuing to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is now entering its sixth week with no credible signs of near-term de-escalation. Add in President Trump’s speech last week, which warned that intense targeting could continue for a few more weeks, and it’s a very fair assessment that the conflict will carry into next week, with momentum and escalation to the upside.

On Saturday, the U.S. military continued search operations for an American airman who ejected after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran, marking the first downed U.S. aircraft in the conflict. One crew member was rescued, but the second remained missing, with Iranian forces also racing to find the missing pilot.

The downed F-15 jet came shortly after a U.S. Black Hawk was hit by ground fire, and an A-10 Thunderbolt II reportedly crashed Friday near the Hormuz chokepoint. Friday was not a great day for U.S. aircraft as the conflict intensified.

C-17 Globemaster IIIs are on the move. 

Strikes Continue on Both Sides

In a rapidly escalating phase of the US-Israel war on Iran (now around day 36+ since late February strikes that targeted Iranian leadership and infrastructure), Tehran has intensified its retaliation while the US and Israel press air campaigns. Iranian missiles struck central Israel on Saturday, triggering widespread sirens and causing visible damage, including to residential areas and an industrial zone near Beersheba. Reports mentioned cluster bomb effects and shrapnel injuries, though Israeli defenses intercepted many projectiles.

At the same time, Israel launched heavy strikes on Tehran, targeting Iranian air-defense and ballistic-missile sites, while a projectile also hit the perimeter of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant, according to the semiofficial Iranian Tasnim news agency. The International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had notified them about the incident.

Let’s not forget President Trump’s speech on Wednesday, in which he suggested the conflict could continue for weeks and insisted the missing airman would not alter efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.

Iran launched a fresh missile barrage at central Israel, causing fires, damage in areas like Negev, Rosh Haayin, Bnei Brak, and reports of cluster munitions; minor injuries reported, with one man hurt in Bnei Brak.

An apparent Iranian drone damaged the Dubai headquarters of the U.S. tech giant Oracle on Saturday after Iranian forces threatened dozens of US firms. Iran has been targeting Gulf area data centers, and reports of a water desalination plant on Friday made headlines.

Latest headlines

(courtesy of Bloomberg):

US Military Losses

  • Iran shot down a US F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet on Friday, with one crew member still missing and search-and-rescue operations ongoing [APW] [BN] [APW]

  • A second US combat plane reportedly crashed in the Persian Gulf the same day [BN] [APW]

  • Iran has called on the public to find the ‘enemy pilot’ and is promising a reward [APW]

  • Iran says it used a new air defence system to target the US fighter jet [NS1]

Iranian Attacks

  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guards targeted an Israel-linked ship, the MSC Ishyka, with a drone attack in the Strait of Hormuz, setting it on fire [NS8] [NS1]

  • Iranian cluster missiles hit central Israel with at least four impact sites and reports of vehicles on fire [NS8]

  • Missile fragments impacted near Tel Aviv after an Iranian missile barrage, with no casualties reported [JPT]

US-Israeli Strikes

  • US-Israeli strikes allegedly hit multiple areas in Iran on Saturday, targeting government-affiliated and industrial facilities including the Bushehr nuclear site [NS8]

  • More than 30 universities across Iran have been directly targeted by US-Israeli strikes since the war began in late February [NS8]

  • The US destroyed the B1 Bridge in Karaj on April 2 in two separate bombings, targeting what Iran describes as a civilian engineering project [NS8]

Diplomatic Efforts

  • Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table with a compromise framework focusing on ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz [NS8]

Global Impact

  • The war has entered its sixth week with energy prices rising and little sign that Iran will back down or reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz [BN]

  • Senegal has banned all but essential foreign trips for government ministers due to cost-saving measures triggered by the energy crisis linked to the Iran war [APW]

  • Chinese firms with ties to the military are marketing detailed intelligence on US force movements as the war continues [WPT]

In commodity markets, the ongoing energy shock, with crude and LNG facilities across the Gulf area disrupted and the Hormuz chokepoint still clogged, prompted Goldman analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby to ask on Friday evening: “Are We Running Out Of Oil?”

“As the last tankers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz before the war are reaching their destination, concerns about potential oil shortages are rising,” Grigsby told clients.

She said, “We analyze country-product-specific oil markets, identify pockets of potential extreme tightness, and discuss the potential evolution of near-term shortages if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for longer.”

“Our three-way analysis highlights already critically low supplies of petrochemical feedstocks — naphtha and LPG — in Asia, with cross-product scarcity in multiple Asian countries in April,” the analyst added.

To end the week, Brent futures and WTI futures both closed Friday in triple-digit territory as traders are becoming increasingly alarmed not just of the crude oil and LNG shortage spreading worldwide but also of petrochemical supply disruptions that are inbound that could affect plastics production, the core material that is bedrock for the modern economy.

Let’s remind readers of how the energy shock dominoes fall.  

JPMorgan analysts mapped out how the energy shockwave from the Iran war spreads across the world, hitting Asia first, then Africa and Europe, before settling on the US – primarily California.

We’ll provide updates throughout the day as the situation in the Middle East is ongoing.



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