The U.S. federal government is barreling toward a partial shutdown Sunday morning if lawmakers don’t act before then, putting workers’ paychecks and environmental and food inspections at risk — but not, at least from a historical perspective, the stock market.
Amid a spending brawl with hardline fellow Republicans, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy may be forced to cut a deal with Democrats to keep the government open past midnight Saturday. Some House Republicans are seeking spending targets for the coming fiscal year at levels below those in an agreement McCarthy struck with President Joe Biden in May to raise the debt ceiling. The fiscal year begins Sunday, Oct. 1.
Investors may not be hurt by a shutdown. As MarketWatch has reported, there have been six government shutdowns since 1978 that lasted five days or more, and the S&P 500 index
SPX
gained in the four most recent.
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But visitor services at national parks may be halted, passport applications could be delayed and many workers at agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission would be told not to show up at the office. Meanwhile, other government functions would continue, such as the payment of Social Security and Medicare benefits.
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Here’s a look at what could close and what could stay open in the event of a partial shutdown, as well as other ways Americans might be affected.
Social Security and Medicare
Social Security and Medicare benefits would continue to be issued in a shutdown, although, as a Brookings Institution explainer notes, services offered by Social Security offices could be limited. The U.S. Treasury will also able to pay interest on Treasury debt on time, the same explainer noted.
Retirement Weekly: What a government shutdown would do to Social Security payments — and what you really should be worried about
National parks
National parks suffered during the 35-day shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019. Many parks remained open but went unstaffed, and conservationists warned at the time that sensitive lands could take decades to recover from damage. Smithsonian museums and the National Zoo in Washington were closed as well.
Federal-worker furloughs
Some federal workers deemed essential would stay on the job, but hundreds of thousands of others would be furloughed without pay. In the past, they have been entitled to back pay. Workers considered essential include military personnel, prison guards and border-security agents.
Airline disruptions are also possible in the event of a shutdown, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg warned on Sunday. He told CNN that air-traffic control training would cease, controllers who would work would not be paid and a federal effort at rulemaking for passenger refunds would grind to a halt.
Government data
The economic data released by the U.S. government that investors pore over could also be delayed, depending on the length of a shutdown. For example, a reading on gross domestic product came out a month later than usual, in February 2019, due to that year’s shutdown.
Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the possibility of data reporting being affected.
“If there is a government shutdown, and it lasts through the next meeting, then it’s possible we wouldn’t be getting some of the data that we would ordinarily get and we would just have to deal with that,” he told reporters at a news conference. The next Fed meeting is set for Oct. 31-Nov. 1.
Government-backed mortgages
Americans applying for government-backed mortgages may face unexpected delays in the event of a partial shutdown, as MarketWatch reports. When the government shuts down, federal agencies work with limited staffing, which means fewer applications get processed.
Read: Government shutdown could leave thousands of federally backed mortgages in limbo
Food and environmental inspections
Food and environmental inspections could also be halted. During a shutdown in 2013, the Environmental Protection Agency stopped inspections at 1,200 different sites for things like hazardous waste and drinking water, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
U.S. Postal Service
In the event of a shutdown, Americans would still receive cards, letters and packages through the mail. The U.S. Postal Service is an independent body that’s funded by selling its products and services, not by tax dollars.
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