Crude prices are extending recent gains this morning – albeit modestly – as geopolitical risk premia are rebuilding amid missiles flying in Russia, MidEast tensions continuing, and Biden seems set on WW3 as his legacy.
Last night’s API report showed a larger than expected crude inventory build and traders are on the lookout for whether a contango market structure is here to stay after the WTI prompt spread dipped into negative territory this week for the first time since February, signaling near-term oversupply.
API
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Crude +4.75mm
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Cushing -288k
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Gasoline -2.48mm
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Distillates -688k
DOE
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Crude +545k (-620k exp)
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Cushing -140k
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Gasoline +2.05mm
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Distillates -114k
The official DOE data was very different from the API reported data with a small crude build and large gasoline build. This is the third straight weekly crude build and the biggest gasoline build since early September…
Source: Bloomberg
The Biden admin added 1.4mm barrels to the SPR last week – the biggest addition since August – making its the fifth straight week of total crude stocks rising…
Source: Bloomberg
US Crude production plunged by 200k b/d and does not look hurricane-related…
Source: Bloomberg
WTI dipped after the data…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil investors are pricing in Trump’s foreign policy approach as bearish. Of 10 traders surveyed by Bloomberg, eight said that Trump’s proposals will limit price increases, with some suggesting a trade war with China will erode demand and potentially offset any new sanctions on Iran.
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