5 pivotal 2026 Senate races will determine whether Republicans maintain governing trifecta under Trump

The balance of power in Washington, D.C., is up for grabs in 2026 as a handful of key Senate races will determine whether President Donald Trump and Republicans will maintain their governing trifecta. 

In addition to their own competitiveness, many of these key Senate races may say more about the state of politics in 2026 — and the respective parties — beyond their individual results.

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5 — Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., faces a competitive Senate race in Georgia where Democrats will look to retain a seat in a state that went to President Donald Trump by 2.2% in 2024. Ossoff will have to defend his party’s role in the extended government shutdown that especially hurt Georgia’s airline-heavy economy. 

During the 43-day stretch, Ossoff voted with Republicans to make partial provisions for federal workers but voted against the spending package that eventually ended the shutdown.

Ossoff won his last election in a 2021 runoff against Republican candidate David Perdue. He secured victory by just a 1.2% margin.

Nine Republicans have joined the bid to unseat Ossoff. Most notably, the challengers include Rep. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., and Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga. 

Republicans will hold their primary on May 19, 2026.

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4 — Michigan

Before Michigan’s Senate race becomes a question of congressional power, it may first become a litmus test for what the Democratic label is becoming.

Five Democrats have joined the Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Minn. Peters last won election in 2020 by just 1.7% — just over 92,000 votes. The primary race has become a three-way contest between Abdul El-Sayed, a candidate pushing for healthcare for all and greater federal restrictions on what he sees as monopolistic forces in capitalism, and two more middle-of-the-road candidates: state Sen. Mallory McMorow and Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich.

Republicans have made efforts to use El-Seyed’s stances as proof that Democrats are going the way of Zohran Mamdani, the socialist mayor-elect of New York City. 

On the Republican side of the field, the race has attracted a handful of candidates, most of whom have not previously held office. One notable exception is former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., who represented the state in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2015. 

Michigan will hold its state primaries on Aug. 4, 2026.

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3 — Minnesota

The race to fill the seat of outgoing Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., presents Republicans with a tantalizing opportunity in a state that’s home to former vice presidential candidate Tim Walz — and where national outrage over devastating fraud schemes may create an opening for Republican messaging.

Smith last won election in 2020 with a 48.8% — 43.6% victory over Republican candidate Jason Lewis. In that election, Kevin O’Connor, an independent candidate advocating for the legalization of marijuana, took away 5.8% of the vote. It’s unclear how that 5.8% vote may go in 2026; O’Connor hasn’t filed to join the race. Additionally, an executive order from President Donald Trump sets up marijuana to become available for medical research and use.

With the playing field looking different this time around, the race has attracted eight Republican candidates — including Royce White, a former NBA player for the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings. 

On the Democratic side of the aisle, notable candidates include Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. That primary sets up a telling choice for Democrats between Craig, who has attracted endorsements from more of the party’s establishment, and Flanagan, a progressive. 

Minnesota will hold its primaries on Aug. 10, 2026. 

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2 — Iowa

U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, shocked Washington, D.C., in September when she announced she would not pursue re-election. The two-term senator had run into hot water when she remarked that “we are all going to die,” in response to questions about healthcare insecurity that Democrats feared would arise from cuts to Medicaid. She last won an election in 2020 in a 51.7% to 45.2% victory over Theresa Greenfield. 

That 6.5% margin of victory — without the advantage of an incumbent to defend the seat — gives Democrats a unique opportunity to try to flip a seat in a state that went to Trump in 2024 by 13.3%.

So far, a handful of candidates have declared their candidacy for the race, including Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa. The group also includes a handful of Republican state-level representatives. Similarly, notable Democrats in the race include state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek.

Iowa has its primaries scheduled for Jun. 2, 2026.

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1 — North Carolina

The Tar Heel State’s 2026 Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., has all the makings of a blockbuster showdown. As a state with a Democratic governor that went for Trump in 2024, North Carolina’s matchup could come down to the wire between former RNC Chair Michael Whatley, a Republican with expansive fundraising and campaign experience, and former N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper, a soft-spoken Democrat with a track record for winning over middle-of-the-road voters. 

While Whatley has never held elected office, he helped Republicans overperform expectations in 2024 when the GOP narrowly hung on to power in the House of Representatives and flipped control of the U.S. Senate. Cooper last won election as governor in 2020 in a 51.5% – 47.0% victory over Republican challenger Dan Forest. Before his time as governor, Cooper had been elected multiple times to serve as the state’s attorney general going back to 2000. He has never lost an election. 

The state will hold its primaries on March 3, 2026.