Democrats outspend Republicans on airwaves in crucial House races, with California and New York leading the way

Democrats have outspent Republicans on television advertisements in the races that will be crucial to deciding control of the US House of Representatives, with California and New York seeing the highest spending by the two parties, according to a CNN analysis of advertising data from the first full month following the end of primary season.

Both California and New York, while deep-blue at the statewide level, are home to buckets of highly competitive House seats that were key to Republicans gaining their narrow majority two years ago.

Outside groups are playing an influential role in the race for the House, with a pair of leading super PACs from both parties collectively accounting for about a quarter of the $378 million in ad spending, while a wild card – a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency interests, which backs a bipartisan slate of pro-crypto candidates – dumped nearly $15 million more into the advertising fray.

And the ads from some of the top spenders reflects the key issues that are driving voters, including the economy – always a top concern – as well as abortion rights, immigration, and crime.

California and New York

Between September 11, the day after the last US House primaries finalized general election matchups across the country, and October 10, California and New York combined to draw about 29% of all ad spending targeting House races. Ten House races in California and six in New York are currently rated as competitive by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

Republicans in both states are defending several seats that are held by lawmakers who won close contests in 2022 but that Joe Biden would have carried two years earlier under the current lines.

In New York, they include the 4th Congressional District, held by freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, and a pair of upstate seats also represented by first-term lawmakers, Marc Molinaro (19th District) and Mike Lawler (17th District).

The GOP is also trying to hold on to several competitive seats in California, mostly in territory that backed Biden in 2020. The vulnerable members include a pair of Central Valley congressmen – Reps. David Valadao of the 22nd District and John Duarte of the 13th District. Also on the list are Reps. Mike Garcia of the 27th District and Michelle Steel of the 45th District, both in the Los Angeles area, and Rep. Kevin Calvert, whose 41st District in the Inland Empire would have narrowly supported Donald Trump four years ago.

With those series of highly competitive contests beckoning, both California and New York have been flooded with ad money from outside groups, while grassroots donors, responding to battleground appeals, have helped the candidates push ad spending totals even higher. California, in particular, saw twice as much House ad spending in the month since the last primaries as any other state.

And in the top 20 House contests for ad spending between September 11 and October 10, Democrats combined to outspend Republicans in 17 of them by a net of more than $30 million in total.

The three races where Republicans led in ad spending were Nebraska’s 2nd District, California’s 22nd and Iowa’s 3rd – all three seats that the party is defending.

In a few races – such as D’Esposito’s seat in New York; Duarte’s seat in California; Pennsylvania’s 7th District held by three-term Democratic Rep. Susan Wild; Colorado’s 8th District, home to freshman Democrat Yadira Caraveo; and Washington’s 3rd District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez is seeking a second term – Democrats established large advertising leads in the first full month following the primaries, ranging from about $3 million to $4 million.

Across all House races, a few leading outside groups from both parties accounted for a significant share of the ad spending totals. Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, spent nearly $60 million, 16% of the total in the month, while its Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC, spent about $35.5 million, which was 9% of the ad spending total on House races over the 30-day period.

Top advertisers and issues

Collectively, Congressional Leadership Fund and House Majority PAC accounted for more than a quarter of all the ad spending in the first full month since the last primaries, and the content of their TV ads reflects the messaging priorities for both parties.

According to AdImpact data, Congressional Leadership Fund spent about $42 million on broadcast TV ads in those 30 days, and 39% went to ads that referenced immigration, the top ranked issue in its advertising; CLF also spent more than a quarter of its total ad budget on spots that referenced crime, and also taxes.

On the other side, House Majority PAC spent more than $25 million on broadcast TV ads over the same period, and abortion rights dominated its TV ads more than any other issues by a wide margin – about 71% of the super PAC’s broadcast TV spend went to ads referencing abortion. HMP also spent nearly 40% of its TV ad budget on spots referencing crime, in many cases warning against the criminalization of abortion, while ads about character accounted for about 17% of its spending.

In addition, Fairshake, a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency interests, has seized an influential role in the campaign, spending nearly $15 million since the final primaries on ads backing a bipartisan slate of industry-friendly candidates in 17 races. The spots praise the candidates’ economic policies and legislative records on other key issues.

Campaigns and outside groups routinely book advertising time far in advance, and those future ad reservations are subject to change as candidates and their allies adjust their bookings and spend more campaign money.

With three weeks to go before votes are counted in the 2024 election, though, House races in California and New York were poised to continue dominating the landscape, while Democrats held an overall edge in remaining future ad reservations.

Including bookings between October 11 and Election Day, all advertisers in House races have combined ad reservations totaling more than $441 million, and Democrats lead Republicans by about $252 million to $183 million.

California alone was set to see more than $89 million worth of advertising for House races over the final three and half weeks, while New York was set for more than $50 million – together, about a third of all the ad spending targeting the battle for the House in the crucial final stretch.