Democrats salivate at GOP's near zero-vote margin as shutdown looms over ICE reform gridlock

Democrats believe a one-vote GOP margin for error in the House of Representatives would give them newfound leverage in negotiations over the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and other priorities as rumors circulate that yet another Republican may cut his time in office short.

A Republican majority hangs by a thread as questions continue to circulate over whether Rep. Neal Dunn, R-Fla., will resign his seat in the coming days. 

To members like Rep. Pramila Jayapal, D-Wash., that prospect strengthens Democrats’ hand.

“Look, yeah, the less of a majority they have, the better it is for us to actually get real stuff done that benefits the country,” Jayapal said Wednesday evening.

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It’s unclear when Dunn, who has wrestled with health concerns in the past, might come to a decision.

If Dunn steps aside, Republicans will have just a one-seat majority and almost no margin for error that will prevent them from passing most pieces of legislation with just one vote to spare among their own party or secure help from Democrats.

With persistent rebels like Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., in the mix, Democrats are willing to bet they’ll be asked for help.

Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., believes that even just one less vote changes how Republicans have to think about DHS funding and the list of demands Democrats have made for reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

“This place runs on numbers,” DeLauro said. “I think what I’ll do is take the circumstance and, for me, we need to be bold, transformational but do what is attainable.”

Democrats led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have made a list of 10 demands for ICE reform that, among other items, include a ban on masks, an end to racial profiling, stiffer warrant requirements and an end to paramilitary policing practices. 

Gridlock over those demands looks poised to force a partial government shutdown as lawmakers run up against a funding deadline Friday without a compromise in sight.

“Let’s look at what we can get done,” DeLauro said.

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While control of what legislation goes to the floor likely won’t change with an even tighter majority, Rep. Johnny Olszewski, D-Md., believes Democrats could press their priorities through the amendment process.

Most bills have what’s called a “closed” rule process by which only preapproved amendments are considered.

Olszewski hopes that’s one area Republicans could allow some give.

“I have, in good faith, tried to offer amendments to make bills better and potentially able to support,” Olszewski said. “I know that many of my colleagues have done that. And, so, I guess, you know, if we’re serious about coming together and finding solutions — especially on the cost of living crisis that’s crushing America — maybe we’ll see that.

“I don’t think that’s a good way to get Democratic support for anything to continue to shut them out of the process.”

When asked if he sees Democrats locking down legislative efforts Republicans can’t unite on, Olszewski said he hopes that’s not how things play out.

“It doesn’t have to be that way,” Olszewski said. “Since I’ve been sworn in, I’ve been pleading to Speaker Johnson and the Republican majority to strike a more bipartisan tone.” 

Jayapal believes previous votes Republicans and Democrats have forced together indicate that there’s more room for collaboration.

“I mean, you’ve seen the success with discharge petitions,” Jayapal said, referring to the legislative process Republican rebels have used to force votes over the objection of the chamber’s leadership.

Notably, the legislation that forced the release of the Epstein files came about through a discharge petition effort. 

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Lawmakers have filed 16 discharge petitions this Congress. Of those, four have reached the needed 218 signatories to advance.

While Dunn’s picture remains uncertain, Republicans can expect to add to their razor-thin majority when Georgia holds its special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., March 10. Greene resigned from Congress in January. 

The heavily Republican district was last won by Greene by a 28.8% margin of victory.