Early South Carolina exit poll shows highly conservative electorate, with many identifying with MAGA movement

The electorate that Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are battling to win in South Carolina is a highly conservative one and looks much more like Iowa than New Hampshire, according to the initial results of CNN’s exit poll for the state’s Republican presidential primary.

As in January’s Iowa caucuses, well over 4 in 10 South Carolina primary voters describe themselves as affiliated with the MAGA movement, the exit poll finds.

Roughly 8 in 10 say that they’re conservatives, with more than 4 in 10 calling themselves very conservative.

And only about one-third acknowledge that Joe Biden was the legitimate victor of the 2020 presidential election – similar to Iowa, but lower than in New Hampshire, where nearly half of primary voters acknowledged Biden’s victory.

Trump dominated the Iowa caucuses, taking 51% of the vote, while Haley trailed in third place behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who later dropped out of the race. The outcome was closer in New Hampshire, but Trump still came out ahead 54% to 43% over Haley.

Exit polls are a valuable tool to help understand primary voters’ demographic profile and political views. Like all surveys, however, exit polls are estimates, not precise measurements of the electorate. That’s particularly true for the preliminary set of exit poll numbers, which haven’t yet been weighted to match the final results of the primary. But the results provide a glimpse into the type of voters turning out to participate.

The early exit poll also showed that most South Carolina GOP primary voters had made up their minds before 2024 had even started. More than three-quarters say they decided whom to support for president sometime prior to January, and fewer than one-tenth say they made up their mind in the week prior to voting.

While voters’ decisions are often too complex to be reduced to any single issue or candidate attribute, the exit poll provides some clues as to which topics gained traction in the campaign. Slightly below 4 in 10 primary voters say they were most looking for a candidate who would fight for them, with another third saying they wanted someone who would share their values and fewer prioritizing temperament or electability.

And the results also show a significant gap between Trump and Haley supporters in how they view the race. A near-universal 9 in 10 Trump voters say they cast their vote largely in support of him, rather than against his opponent. While most Haley voters also say they were primarily motivated by support for her, a substantial minority – about 4 in 10 – say their vote was mostly a way to express opposition to Trump.

The exit poll for South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. It includes 1,508 interviews with Republican primary voters across 38 different polling places on Election Day. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

This story has been updated with additional information.