USD/CHF opens the week with a slight rise, eyes on US CPI

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  • USD/CHF rose slightly in the quiet market environment ahead of this week’s US CPI data.
  • Last week’s underwhelming US data weighed on the USD.
  • Markets are bracing for the US inflation data due later in the week for directional cues.

On Monday, the USD/CHF traded largely neutral around 0.8970 with some gains. That being said, the pair continues soft, following last week’s US data which fueled dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) which made markets dump the USD. There won’t be any highlights on Monday and markets brace for inflation data from the US later in the week.

The US markets are now keenly watching for the release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data will play a crucial role in determining whether the inflation resurgence is tapering off or if the softer readings in April and May were transitory. The headline CPI for June is predicted to decelerate to 3.1% YoY, down from May’s 3.3%, marking a third successive month of slowing growth. In addition, Fed Chair Powell delivers his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress this week on Tuesday which might also shake the USD dynamics.

On the Swiss side, no major highlights are expected this week, hinting that the pair’s movement will be mostly driven by the USD’s dynamics. Financial markets see over 50% odds of a third interest-rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in September. Likewise, the odds of a cut by the Fed in September have soared to around 80% according to the CME FedWatch tool.

USD/CHF technical analysis

The technical outlook remains somewhat negative in the short term. The pair broke the six-day winning streak and has now recorded losses for three consecutive sessions ending last Friday. Moreover, The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators continue to lose momentum.

The pair’s movement now centers around whether the buyers will defend the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8950. The 100-day SMA, which sits at 0.8990, is now the immediate resistance level.

USD/CHF daily chart

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