Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,
SAN DIEGO—Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s gubernatorial campaign implosion on Friday couldn’t have been better timing for California Republicans.
The state’s GOP was already set to convene in San Diego for their spring convention over the weekend, and the series of Democratic leader defections from Swalwell, as additional sexual allegations surfaced on social media, left candidates and activists gleeful and gloating.
Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and the frontrunner in the crowded contest to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in November, on Saturday addressed hundreds of attendees, beginning his address by using Swalwell as a punchline.
“After 16 years of failure and corruption, the California Dems are collapsing in chaos, and sleaze, and scandal,” Hilton, whom President Trump endorsed earlier in the week, told the crowd Saturday afternoon. “It’s been a couple of hours – I think we’re due for another Eric Swalwell intern eruption.”
Hilton, after his remarks, told RealClearPolitics he believed the Swalwell news could buoy his campaign even further.
“We’ve really seen the California Democratic Party revealed as a totally morally bankrupt institution that only cares about its own power,” he said in an interview. “That’s why I think they’re going to lose.”
Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is running neck-and-neck or slightly behind Hilton, trained his fire on Swalwell exclusively, urging him to drop out from both the governor’s race and public life immediately.
“As a person that investigates predators and puts them in jail, he has absolutely no business being in public service and in a position of authority,” Bianco told Amy Reichert, a citizen-journalist and California GOP delegate. “Do the right thing for everybody in this state and this country and resign from your position and drop out of this race.”
Delegates and other GOP attendees at the convention spent the weekend swapping Swalwell sex scandal allegations and trading speculation about whom top Democrats and the state’s powerful unions would back next.
Even as they needled the Democratic Party over its disarray in the wake of Swalwell’s dramatic downfall, the California GOP remained split on its two Republican contenders in the campaign to lead the state.
Both Hilton and Bianco engaged in furious last-minute campaigning for delegate support at the GOP convention, which took place at the Sheraton San Diego Resort against the backdrop of the San Diego skyline as yachts and sailboats cruised in and out of the marina just yards away.
Hilton and Bianco signs blanketed the hallways as the two candidates pressed the flesh with attendees for hours each day and into the night at fundraisers. Yet on Sunday, in a vote by California GOP delegates and their proxies, neither candidate managed to reach the 60% threshold to win the party’s endorsement.
Bianco walked away with the most votes, 496, with Hilton close behind with 442, while 75 individuals chose not to endorse.
Some party delegates considered the party’s failure to endorse the most positive outcome possible because boosting neither candidate ahead of the other could end up providing the best chance for a Democratic shutout. State election laws allow the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, to run against one another in the general election.
“I’m going to vote for a Republican regardless, and I like both [GOP] candidates, so the best chance for us to get the one-two shot is that nobody endorses – not Trump, not the party,” Scott Davison, California GOP delegate and education advocate, told RCP.
After the vote, Hilton supporters said the party’s division over the two candidates didn’t matter, though they touted Trump’s endorsement as a big net positive.
“This will have no impact on the top of the ticket as every other race does have an endorsement,” Mike Netter, a delegate who is running for state Senate, told RCP. “The most important endorsement to the voting public is that Trump endorsed Hilton.”
In years past, most California Republicans running statewide have avoided courting Trump’s backing, fearing it could backfire in cobalt blue California. Hilton says that was a mistake because California Democrats inevitably try to tar any Republican they’re running against as a MAGA candidate, and Trump’s endorsement will help engage conservative voters and drive up GOP turnout.
“They have nothing new to offer,” Hilton said of California Democrats. “All they have is Trump, Trump, MAGA, MAGA. So, the real impact of the Trump endorsement is not on Democrats or independents because they will have heard these arguments anyway. It’s actually on Republican voters, because in a mid-term election, it’s all about turnout, and the Trump endorsement helps very strongly with turnout.”
Even before the bombshell Swalwell news, Hilton and Bianco, who had consistently polled a few points ahead of Swalwell, were tied at 14%, according to a poll released Tuesday by Evitarus.
Swalwell had trailed the Republicans at roughly 12%, just 1 point ahead of billionaire Tom Steyer, who garnered 11%, and former Rep. Katie Porter with 7%. Candidates Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa each held 4% of likely voters, while Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond followed, each attracting just 1%.
California Democratic Party officials for the last two months have been so concerned about a shutout that they’ve urged candidates polling in the single digits to drop out of the race so others could consolidate greater support. Paul Mitchell, a prominent Democratic political data expert, in March identified a 17% to 20% probability of a “nightmare scenario” for Democrats, where Hilton and Bianco advance to the general election.
And that was before the Swalwell sex scandal exploded into public view Friday when a former staffer for the seven-term congressman told the San Francisco Chronicle he sexually assaulted her twice while she was intoxicated.
At first Swalwell pledged to fight what he deemed as inaccurate allegations, even after three other women Friday night came forward to accuse him of sexual misconduct in a CNN interview. By Sunday afternoon, Swalwell announced he was suspending his campaign even as he vowed to continue to fight “serious, false allegations.”
“I am suspending my campaign for Governor,” he posted on X. “To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past. I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
Swalwell capitulated after a domino of defections. Powerful Democrats, including former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, California Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, as well as Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, a personal friend of Swalwell’s who had run his short-lived 2019 campaign for president, all told him to drop out of the campaign.
The Manhattan district attorney on Saturday opened an investigation into allegations against Swalwell, and a spokesperson for the office encouraged anyone with knowledge of the allegations to contact its Special Victims Division.
Now Democrats are in the awkward position of trying to avoid a lockout by regrouping and throwing their support behind the most viable candidate in a field who were all polling behind Swalwell before the cascade of allegations of sexual misconduct.
It won’t be an easy choice. Last fall, Porter’s campaign imploded after a 2021 video surfaced showing her yelling at and cursing at a staffer, “Get out of my f—— shot!” during a virtual interview. Porter acknowledged the incident, admitted her behavior was wrong, and apologized to the staffer, publicly as well.
At 68, Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund founder who invested in private prisons, doesn’t look poor nor fit Democrats’ national messaging against extreme wealth and its push for wealth taxes. While Steyer’s record as an environmental activist is a strength in California, his prior campaign against cash bail conflicts with voters’ recent rejection of soft-on-crime policies. And Steyer’s more than $100 million infusion of his own money into television ads, so far, has failed to propel him into the top-candidate tier.
Xavier Becerra, who served as California attorney general and Health and Human Services Secretary under Biden, may be the safest Democratic choice, though, as a Cabinet secretary, Becerra received lackluster reviews from national Democrats for poor management of pandemic-related agencies and a low-profile approach.
To back Becerra this late in the primary election, Democratic leaders and the unions would have to throw their support behind him so strongly that it could turn off Democratic voters, as well as independents, who will likely play a greater role in determining the outcome after such an unpredictable and chaotic series of events.
California Republicans say the election is wide open as of now, but are bracing for a desperate Democratic maneuver, such as tapping Kamala Harris to fill the Democratic leadership vacuum in California.
“When Biden imploded [in 2024], they released Kamala, and now that Swalwell has imploded, maybe they’re looking at Kamala for California governor,” Reichert suggested.
“She seems to be everybody’s favorite dark horse candidate,” laughed Scott Davison.
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